AU's Conflict Prevention Pledge Tested by Ethiopia Tensions
Escalating tensions between Ethiopia's government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front are testing the African Union's ability to turn its new early
Barely a week after African leaders met in Luanda to strengthen conflict prevention, rising tensions in northern Ethiopia are challenging the African Union's capacity for early action. Human Rights Watch states that disputes over a 2022 peace deal have fueled military mobilization and recent fighting, threatening a return to widespread abuses.
Strained Peace Agreement
Tensions between Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) have grown for over a year. The core disputes involve the implementation of the AU-brokered November 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. Both sides accuse the other of remobilizing forces. Unresolved issues include contested territories, the return of displaced people, and disarmament. In August, heavy fighting involving artillery and drones erupted near the Sudanese border.
Human Rights Watch has documented continuing rights abuses. In April 2025, the group reported ongoing abuses against Tigrayans by authorities in Western Tigray. More recently, it documented the TPLF forcibly recruiting civilians in Tigray, including children as young as 15. The existing political mechanisms meant to manage these tensions are now under significant strain.
AU's Institutional Response
The African Union has expressed concern about the situation since March 2025. Its Peace and Security Council, which includes Ethiopia as a member, called on August 12 for strengthening the Continental Early Warning System. The goal is to bridge the gap between identifying risks and taking action. On August 24, the Council validated a new Trigger Model for Early Warning and Response. This model is intended to link specific risks with timely preventive measures. Days later, at an extraordinary summit in Luanda, African leaders reiterated their commitment to strengthening conflict prevention and mediation.
These institutional developments now face a direct test. The situation in northern Ethiopia presents what Human Rights Watch describes as "a concrete opportunity to put those commitments into practice." Efforts to revive mediation have raised questions about whether the current channel retains the confidence of both the federal government and the TPLF.
Calls for Concrete Action
Human Rights Watch calls for the AU to intensify its engagement with both parties to address the disputes endangering the Pretoria agreement. The organization urges the AU to assess whether the existing mediation arrangement needs reinforcement. It also advocates for public reporting by the AU's Monitoring, Verification and Compliance Mechanism. This reporting should cover compliance with the peace deal, including allegations of remobilization and abuses against civilians.
The 2020-2022 conflict resulted in devastating civilian suffering. The current warnings highlight the risk of history repeating itself. The AU's response will demonstrate if its new early warning systems can trigger meaningful preventive action before tensions spiral out of control.
